Monday Morning Espresso W29'25

Jul 21, 2025

The Q2-2025 earnings season is in full swing, and so is market euphoria. SPACs are back, Bitcoin is hovering near all-time highs, and most major indices continue to defy gravity; all this despite mounting levels of uncertainty looming in the horizon (e.g., tariffs, wars, etc.). We are increasingly wary that markets are discounting most of Trump’s threats upfront — perhaps justified, but ultimately a sign of growing distrust toward the administration, which may not be restored during Trump’s term.

In the Nordics, the week featured the first major wave of Q2-2025 earnings reports (+250 reports), including the big four Nordic banks. At first glance, earnings surprises skewed slightly negative, though select names delivered solid results. The Nordic all-share index ended the week down -0.4%.

Denmark

Slow week in Copenhagen before first big batch of earnings in a couple of weeks, hence shares mostly traded on read-across from peer reports. The all-share (-1.6%) and large cap (+0.1%) ended the week.

Relevant news:

Alm. Brand (CPSE:ALMB) raised FY2025 guidance following a strong Q2-2025, with insurance result now expected at DKK 1.6-1.8bn (prev. DKK 1.55-1.75bn) and investment result raised by DKK 50m to DKK 250m. Q2 insurance result came in at DKK 520m (cons. DKK 494m) — the strongest ever — driven by higher prices and customer growth in the private segment. Combined ratio improved to 82.3% (cons. 82.9%) on mild weather and fewer large claims.
Columbus (CPSE:COLUM) cut its FY2025 guidance citing macro-driven delays in IT project decisions. Organic revenue growth is now expected flat YoY at DKK 1.7bn (prev. +7-9%), with EBITDA margin lowered to 7-9% (prev. 10-12%). Further details to follow with Q2 results on August 21.
Genmab (CPSE: GMAB) shares rose after strong Q2-2025 updates from partners Johnson & Johnson and Novartis, both key royalty contributors. J&J reported Darzalex sales of USD 3.54bn (cons. USD 3.25bn), and Novartis posted Kesimpta sales of USD 1.08bn (cons: USD 1.06bn). Genmab will report Q2-2025 results on August 7.
Novo Nordisk (CPSE:NOVO B) finally looks to take market share from Eli Lilly. Scripts data for the week ending July 11 points to total NRx gains of +13.1% for Wegovy vs. +0.2% for Zepbound. This marks the second consecutive week of gains following Novo Nordisk’s CVS Caremark agreement taking effect July 1st. Though it is still early, it is nonetheless encouraging signs.
Both Vestas (CPSE:VWS) and Ørsted (CPSE:ORSTED) rebounded on new buy recommendations.

Sweden

Busy week in Stockholm with shares pressured by a slate of reports missing expectations, incl. most serial acquirers and industrials. Still, there were a few bight spots, such as Telia’s (OM:TEL2 B) SEK 3.1bn cash offer for Bredband2 (OM:BRE2) at SEK 3.25 per share, representing a 34.9% premium to the prior-day close). The all-share (-1.8%) and large-cap (-1.3%) indices both trended lower.

Evolution (OM:EVO) delivered a solid Q2-2025 print, with net sales of EUR 524m (cons. EUR 519m) and EBITDA of EUR 345m (cons. EUR 338m). The results marked a return to sequential growth in Asia following the cyberattack-related headwinds that had pressured performance through H2-2024 and Q1-2025. Management highlighted that countermeasures implemented to combat these attacks have proven effective earlier than anticipated. Europe remained softer, driven by continued ringfencing measures and regulatory constraints.

Management reiterated its FY2025 guide (EBITDA at 66-68%), citing improved resource allocation and expanded capacity at lower-cost European studios as key drivers of profitability going into H2. With Asia returning to growth and management signaling confidence in cybersecurity and LatAm markets, there is upside to current estimates, though investors may remain in “show-me” mode going into H2. Shares trade at EV/EBITDA of ~8x (2026E).

Earnings notes:

Serial acquirers:
- Assa Abloy (OM:ASSA B): Sales of SEK 38,015m (cons. SEK 37,558m), up +3% organically YoY but weighed by FX headwinds (-8%). Americas (+4% YoY, 18.6% EBITA-%) and Global Technologies (+8%, 18.5%) drove the organic beat, partially offset by EMEIA (-1%, 13.9%) and APAC (-1%, 9.6%). Group EBITA landed at SEK 6,555m (cons. SEK 6,386m) aided by operating leverage despite slight M&A dilution. Shares currently trade at a FCF yield of ~5% (2025E), though we believe there is upside-optionality to consensus estimates.
- Lifco (OM:LIFCO B): Sales of SEK 6,943m (cons. SEK 7,023m) and adj. EBITA of SEK 1,562m (cons. SEK 1,657m), weighed by FX headwinds and organic softness in Systems Solutions; margins held up reasonably at 22.5% (cons. 23.4%). We expect FY2025 consensus estimates to be lowered, although sound balance sheet capacity (NIBD/EBITDA 1.3x) and M&A momentum may support performance in H2.
- Indutrade (OM:INDT): Sales of SEK 8,121m (cons. SEK 8,825m) and EBITA of SEK 1,115m (cons. SEK 1,289m), driven by -4% organic growth (cons. 0%) and weaker operating leverage, yielding a 14.0% margin (cons. 15.0%). Order intake was flat YoY, but demand softness persisted across all segments.
- Addtech (OM:ADDT B): Sales of SEK 5,839m (cons. SEK 5,767m) and adj. EBITA of SEK 904m (cons. SEK 864m), with organic growth at 1% YoY and margins expanding 15bp to 15.5%. Energy (+21% YoY) offset softness in Automation (-6% YoY), while Industrial Solutions (+15% YoY) proved more resilient than feared despite tougher macro conditions.
- Instalco (OM:INSTAL): Sales of SEK 3,509m (cons. SEK 3,599m), with adj. EBITA at SEK 236m (cons. SEK 234m). Order backlog grew 4.6% organically to SEK 9.3bn; encouraging signs for a near-term rebound. Operating cash flow was strong (SEK 202m) despite working capital build-up (SEK 12m), yet leverage landed slightly higher (3.1x) on lower organic EBITDA contribution.
Mining OEMs:
- Sandvik (OM:SAND): Orders intake at SEK 32,206m (cons. SEK 30,693m), up +10% YoY, driven by strong performance in Mining. Revenues grew +3% organically YoY to SEK 29,700m (cons. SEK 29,805m), and adj. EBITA came in at SEK 5,629m (cons. SEK 5,740m). Shares currently trade at ~15x fwd EV/EBIT; a slight premium to its historical average of ~13x.
- Epiroc (OM:EPI A): Order intake at SEK 15.3bn (cons. SEK 15.9bn) and revenue at SEK 15.1bn (cons. SEK 15.7bn). Adj. EBIT was SEK 3.0bn (cons. SEK 3.2bn) for a margin of 19.7% (-30bp vs. cons). By and large, figures disappointed to the downside, especially in the context of peers’ reports.

Finland

Shares in Finland started the week on weak footing but regained strength toward the back half, supported by solid Q2-2025 results. Still, the all-share (-1.1%) and large-cap (-0.7%) indices ended the week in red territory.

Relevant news/earnings notes:

Scanfil (HLSE:SCANFL) announced the acquisition of Italian EMS provider MB Elettronica (c. 500 employees) to strengthen its position in Southern Europe and accelerate growth in the aerospace and defense sectors. The debt-free EV is EUR ~73m, with an additional earn-out of up to EUR 50m based on 2025-26 results. The transaction will be paid in cash and financed via existing credit facilities.
Evli (HLSE:EVLI): Sales of EUR 27.5m (cons. EUR 27.6m) and EBIT of EUR 11.1m (cons. EUR 10.2m). EPS landed at EUR 0.33 (cons. EUR 0.28). AUM rose to EUR 19.7bn (LY: EUR 18.7bn). Fee income from traditional and PE funds, asset management, and brokerage grew, while performance and advisory fees declined.
Verkkokauppa.com (HEL:VERK): Revenue of EUR 116.5m (cons. EUR 108m), driven by robust growth in core categories (IT and Entertainment) and a 40% increase YoY in international sales. EBIT landed at EUR 1.8m (cons. EUR 1.1m), aided by operating leverage amid recent fixed cost reductions.
Nokian Tyres (HLSE:TYRES): Sales of EUR 344m (cons. EUR 353m) and adj. EBIT of EUR 26m (cons. EUR 22m), driven by a positive surprise in Passenger Car Tyres (7.7% EBIT margin vs. cons. 2.8%). Stronger pricing and mix offset prior cost issues; guidance for FY2025 unchanged.
Wärtsilä (HLSE:WRT1V): Order intake of EUR 2.19bn (cons. EUR 1.86bn), driven by Energy segment wins. Sales were EUR 1.72bn (cons. EUR 1.69bn) and adj. EBIT EUR 207m (cons. EUR 192m). Guidance reiterated, yet we would expect a slight lift to 2025E EBIT consensus estimates.
Orion (HLSE:ORNBV): Sales of EUR 417m (cons. EUR 384m) and EBIT of EUR 105m (cons. EUR 94m), driven by strong Nubeqa royalties (EUR 140m, +96% YoY). EPS came in at EUR 0.59 (cons. EUR 0.53). Guidance (EUR 1.63-1.73bn sales, EUR 400-500m EBIT) reiterated after early-July raise. With strong momentum in royalty sales alongside upside optionality from timing of the Bayer milestone (EUR 180m), coming quarters will likely benefit.

Norway

Norwegian equities drifted lower, with the all-share (-1.8%) and large-cap (-1.6%) giving back recent gains. Broadly, we found little to get excited about among this week’s reporting names; our attention is more on the earnings set to come through in August.

Relevant news/earnings notes:

Airthings (OB:AIRX) has paused asset sale talks with Firda after recently ending negotiations with Zehnder Group over execution concerns. Following the update, CEO Emma Tryti has resigned (effective July 14, 2025), with CFO Helge Øien appointed interim CEO.
Grieg Seafood (OB:GSF) has agreed to divest its operations in Finnmark and Canada to Cermaq Group for an EV of NOK 10.2bn (USD ~990m). The transaction enables Grieg to exit the challenged Canadian market and refocus on its core Western Norway operations. The divested assets generated EBITDA (FY24A) of NOK 184m, implying an EV/EBITDA of ~55x.
Vow (OB:VOW) has breached terms of its loan covenants as the company reported an overstated Q1-2025 EBITDA of NOK 9.4m. The revised EBITDA points to NOK -6.6m, with the discrepancy being relate to POC accounting. The company is in discussions with DNB for a waiver.
Aker BP (OB:AKRBP): Revenue at USD 2.6bn (cons. USD 2.6bn), with EBIT of USD 915m (cons. USD 1.6bn) impacted by USD 700m in goodwill impairments. Net income was USD -324m (LY: USD 1.1bn) on lower realized oil (USD 66.9/bbl) and gas prices (USD 68.7/boe). Production was 415kboed (LY: 443kboed). Despite headwinds, management reiterated its USD 0.63 DPS and highlighted solid project momentum expected to lift production longer term.
Telenor (OB:TEL): Revenue of NOK 20.3bn (cons. NOK 20.0bn) and adj. EBITDA of NOK 9.3bn (cons. NOK 8.9bn), driven by 12.5% Nordic EBITDA growth led by Norway (+16.1%). Despite a FCF miss at NOK 1.6bn (cons. NOK 2.0bn), due to NWC and bonus provisions, management raised the FY2025 guide to: Group EBITDA growth at MSD (prev. LSD-MSD); Nordic EBITDA growth at HSD (prev. MSD); and FCF at NOK 13bn (unchanged).
Vend Marketplaces (OB:VENDB): Revenue of NOK 1.68bn (cons. NOK 1.65bn) and adj. EBITDA of NOK 429m (cons. NOK 379m), with margins uptick driven by operational efficiency. Marketplace revenue grew +1% (CC), led by Mobility (+4%) and Real Estate (+10%), while Jobs (-11%) and ReCommerce (-6%) declined amid efforts to exit from non-core segments. Higher ARPA supported growth, though ad revenue remained soft. No formal FY2025 guide provided, but management flagged potentially lower volumes going into H2.
Tomra (OB:TOM): Revenue of EUR 325m (cons. EUR 332m) and EBITA of EUR 48m (cons. EUR 42m). On segment level, Food landed ahead of expectations (EBITA EUR 21m; cons. EUR 10m), with Collection (EUR 28m; cons. EUR 31m) and Recycling (EUR 6m, cons. EUR 10m) as laggards, with order intake for the latter down -37% YoY.