Super gennemgang! Og fedt med opfølgning på regnskabet ovenpå dit første pitch. Jeg er selv tæt på at tage en position i Better Collective, så det er virkelig værdsat input.
Når det er sagt, sidder jeg stadig med et par ting, jeg ikke helt kan slippe:
OCF ser stærkt ud umiddelbart, men det virker som om det primært er drevet af udskudte betalinger og lavt CapEx. Jeg ser det ikke nødvendigvis som et tegn på underliggende momentum?
NDC-faldet på -30% YoY bekymrer mig også lidt. Jeg forstår godt forklaringen med svære comps og brasilianske bonusforbud, men det ændrer ikke på, at man har brug for konstant tilgang af nye spillere for at få RevShare-modellen til at opnå en compounding effekt over tid.
Jeg er stadig positiv på den lange bane, men synes der er nogle elementer i Q1, der godt kunne udfordres lidt mere i analysen. Jeg forventer at tage en begyndende position snart, og vil glæde mig til at følge udviklingen videre mod Q2 og håber på tegn på en re-acceleration.
Hi Silas. Thank you for the thoughtful input. I have taken the liberty to respond in English to ensure that non-Nordic readers can follow along!
As noted, H1-2025 will be inherently noisy with lots of moving parts to untangle. I completely get the hesitation — it’s not easy to follow. After all, muddy situations carry opportunities for those willing to dig a bit deeper. I believe this is one of such cases (not investment advice).
The below seeks to address your concerns one by one.
1. First, I think it’s important to clarify that OCF in Q1-2025 was supported by delayed payments from customers (I.e. "overdue receivables" from LY that landed in this quarter). That tailwind was partially offset by EUR 9m in overdue receivables (i.e. payments to the company that were expected in Q1-2025 but slipped into the next quarter). Net-net, it is just timing imbalances, but not recurring in nature.
As for the capex-level, please recall that the company has historically been highly acquisitive. So yes, Q1-2025 capex levels look very suppressed vis-á-vis historical figures, yet it is reflective of the company's shift toward organic growth. In that context, Q1-2025 is actually a reasonable proxy for steady-state capex (although it did contain EUR ~8m in deferred payments tied to past M&A).
2. Yes, the NDC step-down is not ideal. Yet, I believe the underlying reasons are well understood and are temporary in nature. As OSB penetration widens in LATAM and more U.S. states come online, I am confident that NDC volumes will re-accelerate. The timing is hard to pinpoint, but I would be *very* surprised if momentum has not returned by the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In the meantime, we are monitoring our ALT-data and keep a close watch on Brazilian regulation with regards to the ban of "welcome bonusses".
Hope that was clear. And once again, thank you for reading along!
Super gennemgang! Og fedt med opfølgning på regnskabet ovenpå dit første pitch. Jeg er selv tæt på at tage en position i Better Collective, så det er virkelig værdsat input.
Når det er sagt, sidder jeg stadig med et par ting, jeg ikke helt kan slippe:
OCF ser stærkt ud umiddelbart, men det virker som om det primært er drevet af udskudte betalinger og lavt CapEx. Jeg ser det ikke nødvendigvis som et tegn på underliggende momentum?
NDC-faldet på -30% YoY bekymrer mig også lidt. Jeg forstår godt forklaringen med svære comps og brasilianske bonusforbud, men det ændrer ikke på, at man har brug for konstant tilgang af nye spillere for at få RevShare-modellen til at opnå en compounding effekt over tid.
Jeg er stadig positiv på den lange bane, men synes der er nogle elementer i Q1, der godt kunne udfordres lidt mere i analysen. Jeg forventer at tage en begyndende position snart, og vil glæde mig til at følge udviklingen videre mod Q2 og håber på tegn på en re-acceleration.
/Silas
Hi Silas. Thank you for the thoughtful input. I have taken the liberty to respond in English to ensure that non-Nordic readers can follow along!
As noted, H1-2025 will be inherently noisy with lots of moving parts to untangle. I completely get the hesitation — it’s not easy to follow. After all, muddy situations carry opportunities for those willing to dig a bit deeper. I believe this is one of such cases (not investment advice).
The below seeks to address your concerns one by one.
1. First, I think it’s important to clarify that OCF in Q1-2025 was supported by delayed payments from customers (I.e. "overdue receivables" from LY that landed in this quarter). That tailwind was partially offset by EUR 9m in overdue receivables (i.e. payments to the company that were expected in Q1-2025 but slipped into the next quarter). Net-net, it is just timing imbalances, but not recurring in nature.
As for the capex-level, please recall that the company has historically been highly acquisitive. So yes, Q1-2025 capex levels look very suppressed vis-á-vis historical figures, yet it is reflective of the company's shift toward organic growth. In that context, Q1-2025 is actually a reasonable proxy for steady-state capex (although it did contain EUR ~8m in deferred payments tied to past M&A).
2. Yes, the NDC step-down is not ideal. Yet, I believe the underlying reasons are well understood and are temporary in nature. As OSB penetration widens in LATAM and more U.S. states come online, I am confident that NDC volumes will re-accelerate. The timing is hard to pinpoint, but I would be *very* surprised if momentum has not returned by the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In the meantime, we are monitoring our ALT-data and keep a close watch on Brazilian regulation with regards to the ban of "welcome bonusses".
Hope that was clear. And once again, thank you for reading along!
/Nordic Edge