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Kev's avatar

Avoid annuities at all costs.

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Nordic Edge's avatar

It was a metaphoric statement :)

But now that we're at it, I'd argue it comes down to what you pay for it - and what side of the spread you're on. The whole "avoid annuities at all costs" gets thrown around way too often, mostly because someone famous said it loudly enough.

At the end of the day, some of the best businesses in the world are annuity-like. Think about subscription models, insurance float, regulated utilities, etc. They’re all built on the same idea of delivering sticky, predictable, recurring cash flows scaled over time.

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Kev's avatar

Thumb down.

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Sigbjørn Hovda's avatar

Excellent work! Thanks a lot for sharing this. What do you see as (potential) key triggers for the share price in the short term?

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Nordic Edge's avatar

Thank you Sir! At current, the market is fixated on NDC development in Brazil following the regulatory reset. Expectations are already washed out; comps are tough, and the optics will likely remain weak through H1-2025, so even early signs of stabilization could be well received. That said, there is a chance of this being a H2-2025 story, given the timing of player reactivations and the seasonal nature of the Brazilian OSB market (e.g., major leagues resuming in March, but real traction building later in the season). Aside from that RevShare acceleration in the U.S., and margin step-up from OPEX-reductions will also carry weight.

Should the market overreact to softer Q1/Q2 prints, I believe downside is mitigated by management’s commitment to allocate capital toward buybacks. A sizeable repurchase program would likely follow any material drawdown.

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Sigbjørn Hovda's avatar

Thanks! Will keep any eye on it. I just wish the DKK was cheaper 😉

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