NOTE: This update serves as a follow-up to the initial write-up. To the extent you are not yet familiar with the business-/investment thesis, I recommend reviewing that piece before diving into this update.
Strong Q4’25 report from SOBI this morning, sending the shares up ~8% today. Headline figures were pre-announced a few weeks ago, showing SEK 7,821m topline, up +15% in CC, with adj. EBITA at SEK 3,217m for a 40% margin - with the outperformance vs. the latest guidance (in Q3’25) being driven by stronger sales for Doptelet, Gamifant and the Haemophilia portfolio.
One of today’s bright spots was the upbeat guidance of LDD topline growth (CC) alongside adj. EBITA margins in the mid-30s. Management’s historical approach to annual guidance has been to under-promise and over-deliver, hence if history is any help, that suggests we’re in for yet another banner-year in 2026.
In Haematology, the EU launch of Altuvoct remains standout and materially ahead of consensus1 - an encouraging read-across on successful market share expansion by way of (i) converting patients on short half-life factor products; and possibly also (ii) non-factor (Hemlibra) patients. Doptelet continued its steady outperformance versus expectations, while the remainder of the portfolio (Alprolix, royalties, Vonjo, Zynlonta) landed largely in line.
Immunology was a bit more mixed, with Gamifant again delivering ahead of consensus, but offset by a weakerBeyfortus royalty contribution mainly due to RSV seasonality and inventory effects. Importantly, management framed 2025 as an aberration rather than a reset for Beyfortus, with a pick-up in royalty-share expected to support 2026 - albeit still cautioning competition (i.e., Merck’s Enflonsia) and general RSV immunisation uptake2.
From a strategic perspective, pipeline progress was constructive with regulatory filings for Gamifant in new indications and geographies, early but encouraging “proof-point” data in IFNγ-driven sepsis, and the initial EU launch of Tryngolza. That said, management was explicit in labelling 2026 as a transition year, with elevated OPEX tied to launches and R&D investments temporarily weighing on margins before a return toward ~40% longer term - all of which were well-known.
Generally, I am very satisfied with SOBIs development operationally (and share price wise) and look forward to the CMD on February 18.
Full disclosure: I have reduced my holding in SOBI both yesterday (04/02/2026) and today (05/02/2026) to (i) fund additional shares in, among other, Vend Marketplaces; and (ii) rebalance my holding as shares are closing in on my fair value assessment.
This was a core element to the thesis
Especially relevant in the context of recent U.S. CDC recommendation going from “recommended to all children” to “recommended to children deemed high-risk”, though no changes were made to the coverage-/reimbursement dynamics.