Tariffs once again dominated headlines. The week opened with the White House extending the suspension of certain tariffs on EU goods, pushing the effective date to July 1 (from June 09). Later in the week, the yellow man in the oval office faced yet another blow as the U.S. trade court ruled that the president has overstepped his authority, and that many of the announced tariffs may have be rolled back. Team Trump has appealed the case. As such, yet another layer of complexity has been added to an already cluttered storyline.
Nordic equities largely welcomed the “de-escalating” narrative, with the all-share index ending the week up 1.4%. With the Q1-2025 earnings season coming to an end, we believe the below chart exemplified just how material Trump’s tariff scare has been for Nordic companies:
Denmark
Activity was relatively muted in Copenhagen with limited material news and only three trading days. The all-share (-1.2%) and large-cap (-1.5%) indices both traded down.
The week featured earnings from Per Aarsleff (CPSE:PAAL B) which was largely a non-event given pre-announced headline figures had already been released in connection with the company’s upward guidance revision a few weeks ago. That said, the report offered additional color that may hold some read-through for the broader sector.
The company delivered H1 2024/25 revenue of DKK 10,780m (DKK 10,475m LY), up 2.9% vs. SPLY. Group EBIT landed at DKK 465m (DKK 451m LY) hence EBIT margins have maintained its 4.3% level, aided by good momentum in most segment. Yet, we highlight Ground Engineering margins contracting ~3.9pp in Q2 2024/25 vis-á-vis LY — in line with management’s communication in connection with the revised guidance.
Levered free cash flow for H1 was robust at DKK 776m, lifted by continued NWC release, which management expects to normalize in coming quarters. Order intake came in strong at DKK 11,662m, bringing the total backlog to DKK 25,227m (o/w Articon added DKK 681m). With shares trading at ~10x fwd EV/EBIT (in line with peers) and with sequential improvements in cyclical end-markets (particularly outside Denmark), we expect continued resiliency in the quarters ahead. Added comfort is taken in management’s conservative capital allocation and strong project management track record — both of which are crucial within this space.
Other relevant news:
Columbus (CPSE:COLUM) has concluded its strategic review and thus withdrawn from its sales process, citing weak valuation conditions and a muted M&A market. The company remains acquisitive, underpinned by solid cash flow and low leverage. LTM revenue stood at DKK 1,649m with EBITDA of DKK 144m.
H+H (CPSE:HH) has been flagged as a takeover candidate after Polish peer Solbet raised its stake to ~25% in April 2025. CEO Jörg Brinkmann indicated in a recent interview that he is not necessarily opposed to the idea of a potential sale.
Zealand Pharma (CPSE:ZEAL) jumped on Danske Bank’s initiation report pointing to a target price of DKK 800/share. Ahead of the week, experts flagged likely selling pressure due to MSCI rebalancing flows, yet the shares held firm.
Sweden
While earnings activity stepped down in Stockholm, news flow remained high-pace despite the shortened trading week. The all-share (1.1%) and large-cap index (0.7%) ended the week slightly up. While the earnings season is winding down, investor attention shifted toward CMDs from defense company, SAAB (OM:SAAB B), covered below.
Management argued that Saab remains structurally advantaged in what is believed to be the early stages of a secular trend of military armament. To that end, the company remains favorably positioned in the wake of Sweden’s NATO entry and the current EU-procurement agenda being skewed towards “Buy European”.
Management reaffirmed its 18% sales CAGR target through 2027 and expects EBIT growth to outpace revenue, citing operational leverage, automation, and favorable mix-shifts (i.e. toward Dynamics — Saab’s highest-margin unit — which is gaining share, supported by a ~4x production ramp). The company highlighted 25 targets in M&A pipeline as a means to expand capabilities, alongside its targeted SEK 5-6bn RR internally funded R&D efforts by 2027 (SEK ~2.7bn in 2024). With shares up +100% YTD, and 2025E multiples now at the upper bound of the peer set, we believe the shares are fully valued and better R/R opportunities exists elsewhere.
Other relevant news:
Hexagon (OM:HEXA B) is reportedly exploring a sale of its engineering simulation unit (formerly MSC Software), acquired in 2017 for USD 834m, equivalent to ~3.6x EV/sales PF 2016 revenue. While such transaction would be in its early stages, it would likely be valued in the multi-billion USD range. The review comes alongside a planned spin-off of ALI and SIG divisions.
Ratos (OM:RATO B) plans to IPO its construction unit, Sentia, on the Oslo Børs, selling shares worth SEK ~1bn. CEO Jonas Wiström noted the listing improves transparency and reduces construction exposure. The group reported 2024 revenue of NOK 10.6bn and EBIT of NOK 566m.
Volvo Cars (OM:VOLCAR B) will cut ~3,000 roles (o/w 1,200 in Sweden) — equivalent to 6% of its workforce — as part of a SEK 18bn cost-cutting program. The company points to SEK 1.5bn in restructuring charges in Q2-2025 results.
Balco (OM:BALCO) announced its Norwegian operations has secured NOK ~140m in order intake for the month of May alone, the largest of its kind in the company’s history. The company’s shares are down ~30% YTD amid soft demand for construction.
Skanska (OM:SKA B) has secured a SEK 1.6bn contract to build a metro station in Oslo, with construction starting in September 2025 and completion slated for 2029. The project will be booked in Nordic order intake for Q2-2025.
Asker Healthcare (OB:ASKER) has agreed to acquire Itak, an Estonian provider of mobility aids and assistive devices, with 2024 turnover of SEK ~90m and 67 employees. The deal is pending regulatory approval and expected to close in Q3-2025.
Elekta (OM:EKTA B) reported Q4-2024/25 net sales of SEK 5,156m (vs. cons. SEK 5,113m) and adj. EBIT of SEK 843m (vs. cons. SEK 753m), beating expectations despite a SEK 1,064m impairment on an abandoned R&D project. Order intake fell 10% YoY to SEK 5,792m (-12% vs. cons.), though book-to-bill remained strong at 1.12. FY2025/26 guidance implies sales growth and gradual margin recovery towards the 14% medium-term EBIT target, supported by price hikes, new products, and volume. The dividend remains unchanged at SEK 2.40/share.
Intellego (OM:INT) reported Q1-2025 revenue of SEK 201m (vs. SEK 79.6m LY) and EBIT of SEK 133m (vs. SEK 42m LY). Following strong momentum, the company raised its FY2025 targets to SEK >600m in revenue and SEK >250m in EBIT, up from prior goals of SEK 500m and SEK 160m, respectively.
Finland
Shares in Helsinki moved broadly sideways through the week, with the all-share (0.4%) and large-cap (0.4%) largely ending the week where it started. However, preliminary data from Statistics Finland showed prices for old houses retracting 10% YoY in April; positive news for players like Kojamo (HLSE:KOJAMO).
Raisio (HLSE:RAIVV) hosted its CMD, outlining a strategy centered on three growth pillars: breakfast & snacking, heart health, and new categories (i.e. satiety and weight management). Financial targets for 2025–27 were announced, with the group aiming for a 3–4% sales CAGR and +9% EBIT CAGR, the latter driven by volume leverage in non-dairy.
Further, growth is expected to come from both new market entries and M&A. To that end, the company is now pursuing a lower-risk, scalable entry model — labelled the “big small company” approach — with a clear exit criteria for underperforming markets. As for M&A, the company’s strong balance sheet (EUR 83m net cash) alongside compressed valuations provides ample flexibility for bolt-ons. Consensus 2027 EBIT of EUR 32m is near current guidance, implying that forecast upside hinges largely on deal execution and/or overlooked incremental scale.
Other relevant news:
Tecnotree (HLSE:TEM1V) has signed a EUR 39.6m, 7-year contract with a major South African telecom operator for a full-suite digital busines support system (BSS) upgrade. The deal includes licenses, deployment, and maintenance, with revenue recognition starting in Q2-2025.
Pihlajalinna (HLSE:PIHLIS) downgraded its FY2025 revenue outlook, now expecting a slight decline versus LY due to earlier-than-expected service transfers to the South Ostrobothnia welfare region and the sale of special care units; yet, the company reaffirmed its adj. EBITA guidance of at least EUR 65m.
Norway
The Norwegian all-share (0.7%) and large-cap (1.0%) ended the week slightly up as markets digested the the final stretch of earnings season. The week also saw the conclusion of the XXL (OB:XXL) takeover saga. The sporting goods retailer is now set to exit the public market after UK-based Frasers Group — which held a 32.9% stake ahead of the bid — offered NOK 10/share in week 12. The offer has since been accepted by key shareholders Altor and Ferd, both of whom have suffered substantial losses following a share price decline of >85% L3Y.
Orkla (OB:ORK) hosted a capital markets update centered on its 2026 financial targets, originally laid out at the 2023 CMD. The company reiterated its transformation journey from a branded goods conglomerate to a more specialized investment company with active portfolio management, decentralized operations, and ROIC discipline at its core.
On financials, management reaffirmed its ambition of mid-single-digit organic sales CAGR, ~50bps annual EBIT margin expansion, and ROCE >12% through 2026. We question the sustainability of recent revenue and margin performance, which has predominantly been driven by by price increases and cost-outs. While the management did highlight its intent to bring vol-/mix to drive topline growth, we remain cautious amid private label companies taking incremental shelf space.
Other relevant news:
Entra (OB:ENTRA) is touted as a potential takeover candidate following recent ownership shifts involving Castellum (OM:CAST) and Balder (OM:BALD B), both of whom now hold material stakes. The company delivered Q1-2025 LTN rental income of NOK 3.1bn with net income of NOK 1.3bn.
DNB Carnegie (OB:DNB) has divested Holberg Fondsforvaltning to Kistefos, owned by Christen Sveaas, in a deal rumored to be valued at NOK ~600m. Holberg has NOK ~37bn in AUM and delivered 2024 EBIT of NOK 62m.
Norse Atlantic (OB:NAS) rallied early in the week following the news of investor Arne Blystad’s family company increased its stake to 8.8% (from 3.1%) post the Italian shipping family, Lauro’s, exit. Despite posting a Q1-2025 loss of USD ~15m, management guides for profitability in 2025.
Grieg Seafood (OB:GSF) reported Q1-2025 adj. EBIT of NOK 221m (–11% vs. cons.), with no update on the ongoing Finnmark sale-leaseback (now estimated to impact equity by 8%). FY2025 volume guidance was reaffirmed at 84kt (+7% YoY; +1% vs. cons.), and 2025 capex nudged up to NOK 967m (from NOK 950m).
Vow (OB:VOW) reported Q1-2025 revenue of NOK 260.8m (+12% YoY; NOK 232.3m LY) and EBITDA of NOK 13.2m (vs. NOK 5.6m LY), with margins lifted 2.6pp to 5.0% (vs. 2.4% LY). While Maritime and Aftersales delivered strong profitability, Industrial Solutions remained weak on order delays. The order backlog stood at NOK 1.53bn (vs. NOK 1.07bn LY), with NOK 250m in option agreements.