As we close the books on the first quarter of 2024, the Nordic markets have been noticeably impacted by persistent geopolitical instability and the new Trump administration’s stance on global trade. Large household names - such as Novo Nordisk (CPSE: NOVO B) and Hoegh Autoliners (OB: HAUTO)- have given back substantial gains. Yet, in the midst of this drawdown, defense stocks have rarely been hotter. Saab (OM: SAAB B) and Kongsberg Gruppen (OB: KOG) have sprinted ahead, lifted by rising European defense budgets and renewed urgency around NATO commitments.
With ~EUR 100bn evaporating from Novo Nordisk as competitive pressures mount, the Nordic region may have lost a crucial anchor for attracting global capital. The fallout hasn’t been contained: Danish equities are firmly in the doghouse, with two of the five worst Q1 performers hailing from Denmark - and not a single name cracking the top five or even the top ten. It’s a rare and stark reversal for what has been the region’s most defensible equity pocket L5Y.
In the neighboring Nordic countries, polarity reigns. Companies aligned with prevailing tailwinds - particularly in defense and rate-sensitive financials - have cushioned index retractions. Swedish investors have enjoyed a currency tailwind, with a strengthening Krona (+5.37% SEK/EUR).
Despite cautious sentiment dominating Q1-2025, the Nordics managed notable IPOs, including Röko (OM: ROKO B) and Asker Healthcare Group (OM: ASKER), offering a modest yet meaningful pulse check on the region’s equity markets. However, this optimism is tempered by ongoing take-private activities, such as Apax's recent bid for Norva24. In fact, EQT - the region’s P2P heavyweight - reportedly eyes several take-private opportunities in the Nordics.
Assuming market conditions don’t erode further - rumored IPOs from Verisure, Visma, WSA Audiology, Leo Pharma, etc. could bolster Nordic exchanges during 2025.
Denmark
Denmark’s equity market continued its rocky slide amid the global trade tensions, with both the broad-based KAX (-5.3%) and the heavyweight OMXC25 (-2.7%) indices plumbing depths not seen in over a year as investors braced for U.S. import tariffs on European goods.
Among the export-heavy blue chips, Vestas Wind Systems (CPSE: VWS) notably stumbled, shedding -8.0% of its value during the week. Curiously, even the announcement of a substantial 495 MW turbine order from Taiwan couldn't counterbalance market anxiety around potential tariffs targeting industrial products and possibly even renewable energy equipment. Conversely, Maersk (CPSE: MAERSK B) bucked its downward trend (+5.1%) following an uptick in container freight rates after 10 consecutive weekly decline.
Outside the C25 spotlight, the smaller-cap tech player Dataproces attracted attention as shares climbed +10% following news of its planned acquisition of a niche analytics firm serving municipalities. We believe there is further upside ahead, and deem the company a compelling take-private candidate or synergistic bolt-on, potentially appealing to larger consolidators such as Visma.
Sweden
In Stockholm, the mood was cautious as well, with the broad OMX Stockholm All-Share index sagging -3.2% and the large-cap index down -3.3% for the week. In fact, none of the large-caps ended the week in green.
Automotive stocks were notably on edge. Truck-maker Volvo AB (OM: VOLV B) saw its stock skid a few percent (-2.2%), mirroring declines in Germany’s auto sector after Washington signaled new levies on imported vehicles could be imminent. Elsewhere, Sweden’s bank stocks saw mild declines in the wake of lower interest rate expectations - apart from Swedbank (OM: SWED A) whose stock slipped -10.8%.
On the consumer front, fast-fashion retailer H&M (OM: HM B) reported weak (expected) results for Q1-2025 (Dec–Feb) and a “sluggish” start to spring sales (March revenue +1% YoY). Sentiment around the stock has weakened considerably (-12% YTD), yet we believe the current negativity may overlook a forthcoming improvement.
We anticipate a steady sales recovery driven by easier YoY comparisons and incremental benefits from store network adjustments and market-share gains amid soft consumer spending. Similarly, we expect margins to pivot from as discounting is reduced and freight costs normalise. Shares are trading at attractive 2024/25 EV/EBIT multiple of approximately 11-12x and offering a nearly 5% dividend yield.
Other relevant news:
Nalka-backed, Asker Healthcare Group (OM: ASKER) - a leading provider of medical products and solutions in Europe - debuted on Nasdaq Stockholm at a valuation of SEK 26.8bn (EV/EBITDA of 20x). The company reported 2024 net sales of SEK 15bn and an adjusted EBITDA of SEK 1.4bn.
Hellman & Friedman, the majority owner of Verisure, is advancing plans for a potential initial public offering (IPO) of the security firm, which could be one of Europe's largest listings (EUR +20bn) in a while.
Finland
Contrary to the previous weeks, the Finnish market was not spared from the global jitters as the all-share index (-2.6%) and large cap index (-3.3%) both retracting. Part of the decline was mechanical given many Finnish shares went ex-dividend this week, including UPM (HLSE: UPM, -4.7%), Konecranes (HLSE: KCR, -14.0%), Finnair (HLSE: FIA1S, -7.0%) and others paid (or set) dividends.
The most eye-catching slide came from Konecranes - the crane and industrial lifting equipment company - whose stock plunged -14.0% in a single week. Konecranes did detach a EUR 1.65 dividend on Friday, but even adjusting for that, the decline was unusually steep.
Tietoevry (HLSE: TIETO) - a leading Nordic IT services and software provider - shares retracted -10.6% following the announcement to divest its Tech Services business to private equity firm Agilitas for EUR 300m. The transaction follows a strategic review announced mid-2024, and corresponds to an EV/adj. EBITA (2024) multiple of 3.38x. Proceeds are earmarked for debt reduction, with the possibility of additional capital distributions to shareholders upon completion.
Other relevant news:
Following the spin-off of Kalmar and the divestment of MacGregor, Cargotec has rebranded itself as Hiab, focusing solely on load-handling solutions. The company's shares will trade under the ticker HLSE: HIAB (-10.6%) on Nasdaq Helsinki on April 1, 2025.
Shareholder in Neste (HLSE: NESTE), Finnish energy company ST1 (~0.6% stake), has proposed dividing Neste into two separate entities: one dedicated to renewable fuels and the other to traditional oil refining. The proposal was presented during Neste's recent Annual General Meeting and awaits a public response by its largest shareholder - the Finnish government (~44% stake).
Norway
The Norwegian market similarly experienced a downturn - though less pronounced than its Nordic counterparts - continuing its divergence observed since mid-2024. The all-share index (-1.0%) and large cap index (-1.4%) ended the week lower, mainly dragged by the seafood sector. The Seafood Index dropped -7% as Atlantic salmon spot prices fell to NOK 84.45/kg - a full NOK 55/kg below levels from the same period last year. This price slump led to sharp declines in shares of major seafood companies, Mowi (OB: MOWI, -6.4%), SalMar (OB: SALM, -7.8%), and Lerøy Seafood (OB: LSG, -4.6%).
After a series of challenging weeks, Golden Ocean Group's (OB: GOGL) shares surged +8.6%. This uptick followed an SEC filing revealing that CMB.TECH NV increased its ownership stake to 44.5% of Golden Ocean's issued share capital. This significant consolidation has sparked speculation about the company potentially being taken private or merged with its major shareholder.
In the other end of the spectrum, Ro-Ro (roll-on/roll-off) carrier Wallenius Wilhelmsen (OB: WAWI) fell -17.5% despite its announcement of a new five-year ocean transport contract with a European automaker, worth EUR 380m. While the contract is relatively small relative to the company’s USD ~3.6bn annual sales, it is nonetheless a positive sign that deals are still being signed in the sector.