NOTE: This update serves as a follow-up to the initial write-up. To the extent you are not yet familiar with the business-/investment thesis, I recommend reviewing that piece before diving into this update.
Quick notes for the record
This morning, Loomis reported another strong set of figures, sending the shares up ~10%. With the stock having traded down into the back half of 2025, I added to the position opportunistically; today, I have realized part of those gains (same exercise done for SOBI, covered separately) purely to rebalance risk - i.e., it is not an expression of change in views. The proceeds have been redeployed into Vend Marketplaces (also covered separately), which has been indiscriminately sold off amid the sector-wide “SaaSapocalypse” currently unfolding.
Tagging along nicely
As a reminder, the investment thesis in Loomis mainly rests on two core aspects that, in my view, the market continues to underestimate: (i) the market is too optimistic about the pace at which global cash usage will decline, particularly in the context of national security considerations amid still rising risks of cyber-attacks; (ii) the market fails to recognize the optionality for Loomis to leverage its dense logistics network and proven track-record within high-security transport in non-cash related verticals, such as pharma, defense, valuables and other end-markets where trust, reliability, and physical infrastructure (network) matter.
Loomis delivered yet another strong set of figures, with Q4’25 revenue at SEK 7.7bn, up 7.4% y/y in CC, though headline growth (-2.7%) was obscured by heavy FX-drag (-10.1% y/y) during the quarter. Profitability was again the highlight, with adj. EBITA at SEK 1.0bn for a 13.2% margin, up 30bps vs. SPLY despite ongoing restructuring and continued OPEX investments across the network.
Worth noting that consensus estimates going into the quarter reflected (i) tough comps as Q4’24 was a solid quarter overall; and (ii) management’s commentary around potential softening in the valuables segment in the event of contracting precious metals prices. The latter did not happen - continued geopolitical instability supported the demand for physical assets (i.e., precious metals) as a store of value, which Loomis helps transport.
Cash generation remained strong at ~20% unlevered FCF margin for Q4’25, and leverage still conservative at 1.55x adj. EBITDA.
In my view, a highlight of the report was the proposed SEK 15/share ordinary dividend and SEK 5/share extraordinary dividend - cumulatively SEK ~1.3bn. That’s a ~5% yield on the current share price, not bad. Add to this a total of SEK 600m in buybacks completed during FY25.
Generally, I am happy with how the company is progressing, but I do want to see some larger acquisitions outside of the cash-related business to reshape the narrative about implied terminal risks. Granted, the company has indeed conducted some smaller add-ons outside of physical cash sphere, most notably (i) Kipfer Logistics (“Loomis Pharma”) for secure temperature-controlled transport and storage; (ii) a few POS providers1 for Loomis Pay; and (iii) a Canadian precious storage facility2. I believe it’s just a matter of time before we’ll (hopefully) see a more material acquisition.
Thesis remains intact.
Central Cash Gestión y Desarrollo and Sighore, S.L. and Internet Commerce Software Solutions
International Depository Services of Canada